[bilbo-san]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, there are 60 combinations of hands from 77+, AQ+ (excluding the Ah and Qh). If he folds 77-99, AQo and AQs he folds out 27 hands to a shove. I doubt he folds AK here. So 27 is 45%. So we could say he has 45% FE.

so 45% of the time villain folds and Hero wins 22.5 bbs.

55% of the time villain calls with the range of TT+, AK (again excluding the Ah and Qh). That leaves us with 33 combination of hands he will call with.

We are a 65/35 dog to his calling range. So when he calls 55% of the time we lose 100 bbs 65% of the time, and gain 104.5 bbs 35% of the time.

So, 45 times out of 100 we win 22.5 bbs.

We win 104.5 bbs 19 times out of 100.

And we lose 100 bbs 36 times out of 100.

(22.5 * 45)+(104.5 *19)= +2998
(100 * 36) = -3600
For a total difference of -602 bbs.

That is -6.02bb per hand.

Given that villain's range is as such. Is this right?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get your math.

1) I already have 4BBs committed. So at decision point I can only "risk" 96 BBs.

If I shove, my expection is 122.5 BBs when he folds, and 35% of 204BBs when he calls, and it "costs" me 96 BBs to shove. So:

EV = (122.5BBs)*.45 + (204BBs)*.35*.55 = 42.875+39.27 = about 82BBs

With your estimates it's actually -14BBs, because I invest 96 to get 82.

But I think he folds a HELLA lot more than 45% if you think our equity is only 35% when called.