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Old 05-04-2007, 04:20 PM
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Default Re: have a FULL HOUSE, SMALLEST POSSIBLE, 4 bet river?!!!

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please explain, since in my belief i play MTT to win the most $$$ possible in each one (and winning obv = most), and folding and trying to cash would give me close to no shot at doing so. this is where the difference b/n a cash game and a MTT was to me.

btw. i do make donkish plays, but trying to minimize them slowly

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Your decision should always be based on the $EV of the play. Nothing else should matter. If I'm at the FT of the WSOP and 6 people move all in PF in front of me, I shouldn't call with my 68o just because if I win I will basically have the tourney locked up. I need to analyze the $EV of making the call and make my decision based on that.

So in your scenario, if we determine that one of the guys has a better full house 90% of the time, then the $EV of you calling off your chips would be negative since the pot is not laying you enough for when you win to make up for all the times you lose.

etc. etc. etc.

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FWIW, I don't think that the reason OP gave is always necessarily wrong because not all equally +/-cEV spots are equal.

If a similar situation arose and folding would leave you pushbotting but calling left you in a strong position on the bubble, then I think we can/should make a -cEV call.

Also, the exact cEV of this situation, if marginal, cannot be adequately determined. Who really knows, in actual fact, just how many people out there can stack off lighter than the smallest boat after this action? Without knowing whether it's 5% of online players at these buyins, or 70% (and the former figure would surprise me more) we can only roughly estimate the cEV. And, where there is reasonable doubt, err of the side of getting your chips in.
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