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Old 05-01-2007, 04:09 PM
busguy busguy is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: God\'s Country
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Default Re: WTF WSEX FROZE MARKETS ALREADY???

[ QUOTE ]
This is the most complicated explanation of shorting I've ever heard.

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LOL . . . Too true. I think I added the most to the confusion, by using the sell/buy numbers that trafic1234 posted, in my explanation :

[ QUOTE ]
Position Event Series Market Position Date
-55 AMERICANIDOL-2007 PHIL STACEY(44577) 1 - 3 04/29/2007 17:37:28
-25 AMERICANIDOL-2007 CHRIS RICHARDSON(44565) 0 - 2 04/24/2007 16:41:52
15 AMERICANIDOL-2007 MELINDA DOOLITTLE(44573) 34 - 39 04/30/2007 16:03:17

[/ QUOTE ]

So just to try and clarify a few things :

1) The sell/buy price shown above is the current (when he copied it) price of each contestant.

2) The date shown is the date that trafic12134 bought/sold each contestant.

3) Revots and I were using Phil's current sell price of $1 in explaining what would have to be wagered to "short" Phil.

4) Revots and Vegan were saying basically the same thing. To short someone you need to have the money in your account to cover the position. They either take the money or freeze it but regardless it needs to be there.

Ultimately I can't see how or why this guy could have these shorts because of the amount of money he would need in his account to do it. I"m pretty sure it was a Troll post.

The "sell" dates shown above for Phil and Chris were 4/29 and 4/24 respectively. These were the latest dates that trafic1234 shorted or sold each contestant. At no time in the last two weeks have either of these guys been above $4-5 (sell) so the minimum you would have to risk (read. freeze or have in your account) would be $95 (net) for each share shorted. To short these two guys for 80 shares at a best sell price of $5 would mean having (80 x $95) $7600 in your account. Possible ? I guess so. Likely ? Not really. Who in their right mind would wager $7600 to win $400. Again this would be a "best" case example. My guess would be that if you tried to short either Chris or Phil in the last two weeks you would have been doing it at a $2 or less, sell price.

Waiting eagerly to see if trafic1234 re-appears and shed's some light on this . . .

Edit : Wow, just read pokerplayer28's post. If he is right about the margin stuff (I assume he is) then my numbers above are slightly off (wouldn't have to have the Chris wager in his account etc.) but my assertion still stands that he likely didn't risk $5400+ (using pp28's #'s) to win such a small amount.
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