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Old 04-29-2007, 07:15 PM
SomthingOrOther SomthingOrOther is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 221
Default Re: AK in a fish bowl. TPTK Call down or get out?

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I was trying to give u a way to look at the hand more or less or spots like this in the future.

The only thing that really changes with button being behind us is how often him having us beat or chopping with cuts into the times we chop or beat MP. Hes so terrible though look at his stats, and Id expect him to cap the flop or raise the turn with any of the better hands in his capping range AA QQ AQ or AK, so its only a question of how often we beat MP but chop with button (again I cant imagine a 90/15/3 playing TPTK so passively). Its unlikely this rare occurance will cut into our equity to the point where we can no longer call profitably. Either way though its such a clear call HU since we chop like a third of the time, it is here as well since we'll win the pot 1:15 times or chop 1:7 or some combination there of in which will make a call +EV.

If button was more reasonable my previous view of the hand mite have been a bit oversimplified perhaps, but look at his stats and his play in this hand hes probably just throwing money away, so if we could call HU vs just MP profitably why would that change dramatically here just becuz the idiot buttons in the hand behind us?

Again calling will only cost us one BB IMO as if MP bets we call and button raises we can fold almost always even now getting almost 20:1 becuz the pot is protected and 99% of villains are not raising a worse hand vs two that often. Here though this guys stats are almost bad enough I mite throw in that last chip to avoid life tilt if ive seen him do some really bonkers things postflop.

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This makes sence and works for me. I just can seem to call the turn here hoping to chop. I belive in your math. I need some time with it though.
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