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Reality:
-This bill can and probably even will pass the House at some point. I say that because Barney Frank has enough clout to get this bill ridered onto something or other that's certain to pass, and nobody in the House majority (ie, the Democrats) particularly cares enough to stop him. Moreover, the opt out, licensing and state law exception provisions ensure that most of the usual suspects won't bother lobbying against it as hard as they normally would. It's a bill that's very sound politically.
-The Senate is quite another story and I would say it's very unlikely that it clears this session. Then again, we all thought that about UIGEA Mark I.
-If both houses pass this bill and its reconciled, the chances of Bush using his third ever veto on it (or more likely, an unrelated piece of legislation containing it) are roughly 0.00000000001%.
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adanthar,
Don't forget that Bush was
pushing for HR4411 last year , which was tougher than the UIGEA.