Re: WWHD? (Harrington)
[ QUOTE ]
First, cEV does not equal $EV. It would be lesser than $ev. So you start out with what you admit is a -EV bet (qq vs AK) and add to that the fact that your 'payout' in chips isn't 1:1 in terms of money, it makes it EVEN more -$EV.
[/ QUOTE ]Yet you ignore the benefit of having a bigger stack to play on the bubble, which ADDs $ev to this equation. I believe you are overestimating the non-1:1 relationship between chips and real money at this point in the tournament.
But let's remove the potential big-stack-abusing-the-bubble benefit from the equation because that is really hard to quantify (and it is slight, though so is the amount we are behind in the hand).
Do you believe that hero has a greater than 45% chance of doubling up if he folds? Because that is what this is really about.
If you believe you are a better than 80% chance to double up you should not risk your tournament life PF by calling with AA. If you believe you are better than 75% chance to double up you should fold an AK vs AQ confrontation PF. The reality, is though, that no one is that good, especially in a fast structure like this one where you are quickly forced to push substandard hands that certainly do NOT have a greater than 45% chance of doubling you up.
|