Re: WWHD? (Harrington)
[ QUOTE ]
I think you should quickly grab up all your money in the checking account and take it to the casino. Bet it all on black or red on the roulette wheel. Hell, a double up today is worth more than tomarrow, due to inflation and all. Some "pro" gamblers will tell you that you can't expect to win against the wheel, but they obviously haven't taken into account the double up principle
[/ QUOTE ]Your analogy is terrible. I don't even understand what "they obviously haven't taken into account the double up principle" means. My observation was simple. Villain has a 45% chance to double up here vs. QQ. If he believes his chances are less than 45% to double up by folding and finding a better spot, then he should take the 45% chance now. It's a tournament and hero won't make a significant payout without doubling up.
This has nothing to do with taking a losing bet in a casino. If this were the situation in a cash game and villain showed QQ this is obviously a muck. But this isn't a cash game, and cEV != $ev. I believe the advantage hero gains by doubling up now before the bubble, combined with the risk that he probably does not have a greater than 45% chance to double up due to the structure of the game, makes calling greater $ev than folding, even if it -cEV.
|