[DLizzle]

agree with fslexduck here. He plans on calling this river a lot of the time. He could have 99-JJ I guess but if so I hate his play, and he still might call the river some of the time.

Something that no one has really discussed is the comment you made about this being a spot where you're rarely bluffing. I haven't played with you that I know of, but I think he thinks you can be bluffing here probably. He knows his hand looks somewhat weak because of the flop check, but I think a lot of the time he has AA KK AQ, and is trying to get to showdown, scared of a set or a higher pair. It looks like he called the turn with the intention of calling the river, and I think he can talk himself into a call here with those hands because his hand is under repped. I think a shove is a lot less likely to be called than your bet, but your bet is def better than like 1/2-3/4 pot which is getting snap called prob.

I think it's pretty close but I doubt your bet is +ev here. It's pretty good for metagame I think though, but you may not need that since it sounds like you're pretty bluffy. It sucks because if I'm betting the turn with your hand I really really want to follow through on the river but I dunno.

One final thing, what are you value betting here or what does he think you'd value bet here. It could be a big deal whether or not you vb AQ here.