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Old 04-26-2007, 05:24 PM
SGspecial SGspecial is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Doctor Razz
Posts: 1,209
Default Re: How valuable are implied odds in stud?

OK, you've said a mouthful here and we need to go over it point by point if you want to get to the bottom of it.

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1. The problem in the razz case comes in high ante games.

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Like I said before, in the high antes you have more reason to steal, but there is also more reason for your opps to defend against it. Likewise, there is more reason for you to defend against a resteal. This is why the antes stimulate action.

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2. Say it's a full 100-200 game as described earlier in this thread.Once you make your completion, the final low card is getting 2.9:2 on a resteal.

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And you are getting 4.9:1 to defend against it with a reasonable stealing hand.

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3. So if you fold 41% of the time he shows an automatic profit.

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This only takes into account your folds, not your calls or 3-bets. If you 3-bet your big hands he's getting 5.9:1 to call you. How bad does his hand have to be to lay it down correctly there? How good does it have to be to show a long term break even or +EV against your likely 3-bet range?

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4. If you are raising by the book standards of (Xb)c (where b and c are different baby cards and X is a random card), then your 41st percentile hand, starting from the worst and going down, is a ten low.

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What is your definition of "baby" here, 8 or better? If so, is the 100th percentile hand a (K7)8 and the 0th (a2)3? Are you putting all the hands in order by your worst card? If so, does that mean a 987 is materially better than a TA2 against a random hand?

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5. So basically if you fold more than a small fraction of your tens here (and the 'book' play is to fold all T's), then your opponent, shows an automatic profit reraising you with any 2.

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Which book are you quoting? Nevermind, we all know which one. Aside from the fact that the default assumption in the 3rd street chapter is the low (i.e. micro) ante game, I don't believe even 'the book' decrees that all 3-card tens should be folded (tho I'll have to recheck this). If a book told you to throw away a (T3)4 getting 5:1 odds against someone reraising you with (xx)8, would you do it? If you believe that he may be reraising without a hand because you fold to a reraise so often, would you still do it?

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6. You can tweak the numbers a little but that's the basic problem.

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I don't tweak numbers. I analyze them and put them in their proper perspective.

Hope this is helpful... I did try hard not to sound too sarcastic. I just want people to realize that you can't use a cookie-cutter approach to all situations, even in a relatively simple game like Razz.
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