[MYNAMEIZGREG]

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Moss - I like a lot of your thoughts, but make sure they conincide with each other. He cannot be shoving AK on the flop if he cannot have AA/KK, because AK is shoving preflop as well.


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You're right. Given that he is competent and knows you're 3betting a fairly wide range here preflop, I completely agree that he doesn't have AK here.

Greg, a question for you: with 2 possible overcalls behind, what kind of range do you think preposterous can call your 3bet with (correctly)?

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Mossberg - I love your thought process in this thread. It's really spot on a lot.

This is the crux of the whole problem. Once you guys figure out what he can profitably call preflop with, then you will get the answer. Hint: This may be a trick question.

One more thing about his 99+, AQ+ range preflop. Against my squeeze, combined with all the dead money in the pot, and also combined with the issue of a possibility of 2 callers behind, an aggressive player will shove those in his spot. I'm providing this information because the aggressiveness of this particular MSNL hand was probably a lot more aggressive than SSNL games generally are, and I feel like that fact is making some of you guys overlook the big point. So, call it a read or a fact or whatever, but he can't have TT+ or AK. I add 99 and AQ to his range because I have been playing especially aggro, and also his range there is wider than most others in this situation.

So, the next step is to analyze his resulting preflop range. Mossberg hit it perfectly, what can he profitably call preflop with? Can he call preflop with:

1) TT+/AK (99+/AQ+ for our purposes)
2) Some Qx hand
3) Suited Connector
4) Pocket Pair

Given that:
1) There are two people behind him (assume on average one person calls I guess)
2) I have been 3betting a lot

I guess there is some math to be done here, which I have. Feel free to work some out, but I'm not sure it's necessary.

I have to go to a meeting at 7, but I will be back afterwards.