[tippy]

[ QUOTE ]
Play: Atlanta +128

Kyle Davies v. Dontrelle Willis.

Florida is pitching Dontrelle. The main problem I see with Dontrelle is that his wife had a baby this morning. I doubt Dontrelle got much sleep and if any of you have been through the hospital birth experience, it can drain you of every bit of energy and take days to recover. He is going to be mentally tired.

In his 4 starts he has pitched 24 innings and given up 32 hits and 6 walks. Not a great ratio. He gave up 7ER in his last start vs. the Mets which was at home in Florida. The Braves got 4 off him on 4/12 and this is their second look at him in two weeks. The Braves should be able to put up runs on Dontrelle.

The Braves pitch Kyle Davies. Davies has looked decent in his last two going 12IP and giving up 10H and 5BB. The Marlins can put up some runs with their offense though so I think this could be one of those 8-6 type of games. Hopefully Davies can just keep it close as a +128 dog.

I think the Braves have at least a 50% chance of beating a tired Dontrelle Willis with their offense. The linemakers are saying Braves have only around a 44.5% chance of winning this one given the +128 line. There seems to be a little value in taking the Braves here.

[/ QUOTE ]

8-7 Marlins. Damn I hate putting 7 on the board and still losing. At least the total came in.