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Old 04-23-2007, 05:41 PM
shane88888 shane88888 is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Boston
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Default Re: 3/6 Not Exactly My Favorite River Card...

The pot is very nice. 16.75BB. And now I'm thinking out loud...........

UTG+1 has AA or KK. Not capping the flop makes sense for him. Hero capped PF and three-banged the flop. Probably puts hero on a set or A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Of course, this is useless if he's seen you cap light recently. If UTG+1 has the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], does he raise the turn and go for a free showdown? I don't see why not. If he has AA or KK, he wants CO out of the hand (with a million draws out there), and even if he's called, the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is in his hand anyway. If CO is playing that badly, he could raise and CO would call anyway. Then again, he's on many tables, so who knows how much he's paying attention.

The other option is UTG+1 went limp/RR with something like KQs, JTs, QJs, etc. But he can't have that hand in hearts and is looking to boat up. If he hit the flush, would he have raised the turn? The worst case is A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and he wants to keep CO in the hand and is willing to let you draw cheap with a potential set, or he hopes you have the K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I doubt he would limp/RR with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] but who knows.

CO: With a flop coldcall and no turn raise, hearts don't make sense. With a flop coldcall and a turn call, T9 or something of the like makes sense. But I'm not going to think too hard about this one.

So...........

Check/check through: Would be very nice since this means you're winning more than your fair share. Isn't going to happen though.

Check/fold: You lose. You get nothing. Good day sir. Actually, more often than not you'll save a bet but you're not winning the 17.

Check/raise: Interesting, granted the action doesn't go bet/call since you're never folding two people here. I think betting out is more likely to get the CO to fold. Getting CO to fold is huge since he's more likely to have a small heart.

Check/call: A bet from UTG+1's two black aces and a fold from CO would be nice. CO ever folding would be very nice. You'll be getting 17.75:1 on your call.

Bet: UTG+1 has either the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or probably nothing. UTG+1 raising with big [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] doesn't make sense with CO in hand and he knows Hero could bet in bet/fold mode. CO probably isn't folding any heart for one bet.

Bet/fold: You can probably fold in peace.

The sick madman line: Bet out, UTG+1 raises K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], CO folds, Hero 3-bets. UTG+1 needs to have the K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or air AND be in raise/fold mode one in six times for this play to work. But there's no reason for UTG+1 to raise a big heart unless he thinks CO is really on the monkey tilt.
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