[17yekahs]

Yes this post is a direct result of frustrations I am dealing with playing online poker. But let me make a few things clear:

1. I am a WINNING player online. Both with sng's (tracked by sharkscope) and multi's (tracked by opr). I constantly track myself and have been a winning online player for the past 4 years. I prefer to withold naming poker websites but I am referring to some of the largest ones on the web.
2. This rant is not a result of a temporary bad run. It is the final straw of the last several years of online play.
3. I am a winning live player as well, both cash game and tournaments, and play for a living.

That said, I am so fed up with getting my money in SO good online and KNOWING that my hand will not hold up before I even see the flop. I am talking about all-in situations primarily. I play a LOT of sng's and mainly around the bubble, most hands are played allin preflop. Also this pertains to late in multi-table tournaments when many hands are played only preflop.

Hands like KK vs. 78 suited, or KK vs. QJ off, or AK or AQ vs. Ax, not the 60/40's. I am talking about the 70% or betters. I lose these matchups in KEY situations (on bubble or near money in multi's) way too freakin often.

I know all the standard arguements about the "online psychological illusion" of seeing more hands, more bad calls meaning more bad beats, and more multi-tabling causing one to forget all the times hands hold up. But what is ironic about this idea is that when a hand DOES hold up I am so shocked, THAT hand sticks in my head longer than the bad beats because I am so used to the beats, I just quickly move on after them now. So that kills that theory.

I am to the point where I can predict the times I will get beat, like on the bubble in a sng and I am dealt KK with a big stack allin ahead of me, and I pronounce aloud "it's a setup, a guaranteed loss here" and BOOM his QJ is looking great when the flop comes Q Q 2.

And how often does a big pair get immediately cracked on the flop after a position shove with J 5 when two 5's flop. I see that 2 or 3 times a night. What are the odds of a pair flopping to match one of the weaker hands hole cards? I don't know the odds but I do know that it is too unlikely for me to see it several times a night. (Again I am talking about KEY situation allin's, not when there's a multi-way flop with several players. It is important to understand the difference.)

And one of the more specific scenarios I see constantly is the weaker ace winning. I think it's around 25% of time that the weaker ace should win. Many times it could be a chop, but generally an AJ should not lose to A8 more than 25% of the time. Believe it or not, online I would rather hold the A8 in these scenarios. As a skilled player, I never TRY to get the money in like that, but when it happens, I actually feel more confident that my hand will suckout then when I hold the AJ!! This is not a joke. I am 100% serious.

Next is all the "studies" done on the random generator and
that the frequencies the cards are dealt match the probabilities. What I think is overlooked is how the generator's hands/boards come out in KEY situations, specifically All In's. This is where I suspect those studies fail to hold water.

I understand the theory that poker sites don't care who wins or loses because they win either way on the rake. This isn't necessarily supportive either. They prefer to have weaker hands catch up and win more often as it directly increases their profits. Why? Because the weaker players continue to play which contributes to more games, etc. The analogy I like to use is this: If I ran a game at my home every week, and won 100% of the time (assume for this example you had that much control) would your opponents keep coming? of course not. But if you "let" them win 50% of time, they will continue to show up very likely. Same applies to those weaker online players. So it undoubtedly benefits the poker sites to promote the weaker hands more often in these key situations.

I am sure this post will be critisized, and that's okay. But I assure you, I have a winning record both online and live. But online (where there are generally weaker players) I struggle to do so, where I should be able to make more money than I do live with all the choices for games and volume I can play.

To close, I just want to say that I am very open to anyone elses feelings about this, and would love to be directed to studies that focus on key situations rather than just the frequency that the cards come out. I am really struggling here (mainly with regards to my mental health! lol) and am searching for some answers. Please help me out!

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Edit/MH: Moved to BBV from Zoo.