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Old 04-20-2007, 01:55 PM
bigt439 bigt439 is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: 9 to 5 is how you survive...
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Default Re: 25/50 TT OTB vs Grimstarr

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Grim's never gonna be giving you an easy time on the R so going for a check-down on the T sucks imo. You need to decide whether you think you're ahead and raise the Flop or the Turn.

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That's the precise mindset that makes 3betting frequently a very profitable strategy in online poker.

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haha this is exactly what we were talking about the other day...

as far as the hand goes i like the turn check because betting almost entirely serves to protect your hand and doesn't do a great job of getting money from worse hands (in fact checking and betting / calling river does this better) and i think the spot it can put us in and our ability to make up some lost equity on the river outweighs the benefit of protecting against what is something like a 5 outer on average or a better hand. I guess alot of this depends on what grim check calls on the turn though... if he can do it with like 33 then this makes a bet much more appealing, obviously. However another problem is that we can get outplayed on the river and this is a pretty bad river for exactly that. It's a tough river decision... one that's really dependent on his river tendencies. If he can only really make this bet with an ace or better I think we've got to call, but if he can v-bet TT-KK i think its very hard to. But like I said, I don't know grim well enough to really say. Even if you make the wrong decision on the river, it's not likely to be particularly -ev, because i think its such a close spot. Although that's kind of a copout.
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