View Single Post
  #3  
Old 04-17-2007, 05:00 PM
zman2245 zman2245 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 255
Default Re: NL 100 FD + OESD vs probable straight

Here is my math, please let me know if I am doing this wrong. If we assume he has straight then we have 20% chance of winning. So in order to find how much we need to win in order to make this profitable we solve this equation for x:

.2*x - .8*23 = 0 => x = 92
The pot has $64 now (before we call) so if we hit our flush we need to get $28 dollars more out of villain on river to make this turn call break even. So it comes down to what you think you can get out of villain if flush card hits. Since we are assuming bad players, you can probably get this as it will be less than 1/2 pot. But if you suspect villain will be very scared of flush then maybe it's not such a good call.
Reply With Quote