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Old 04-17-2007, 04:14 AM
Erik W Erik W is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Linköping
Posts: 582
Default Re: JJ advice on all streets welcome

[ QUOTE ]
Missed Draws:
A4/A5, A4/A5/58/34/35/25/Random flush draw (unlikely)

8T/T9/AT could be there, and be value betting.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagrees completely with your range estimates.
The calling player is solid which menas he will ditch all those draws on the turn if they are not very strong.

The only draw that is till left on the turn is A3,A4,A5 of spades.
All the other should fold and villain knows that.
Those 3 are probably a fold too with the board paired.
Will you get paid if he have an overpair? He will get you to pay if he have a boat though.

You have a player who donks the flop into 2 persons and is not the preflop raiser and then you have a call of the preflop raiser behind which means after a bet and a call a strong hand. The turn is also paired on the turn. I don't really care usually but on this dry board and with the previous action it is no unlikelly that a boat is out there and hence you have very bad odds to draw(if a boat is there for like 33% already).

Why does he call turn with one person to go? Probably for value and what hands can he then have.

66,33,77 which makes 7 combinations. 67s is also 2 combinations but they are less likelly, I'd probably raise flop with that hand.

What hand can he feel secure with to only call with on the turn? A boat.

All this leads to a fold.
If it is a bad player who calls who is likelly to call with some draws on turn and is also prone to bluff then it is a call.

I cannot see any T hand survive to the river.
88,99 cannot get there either cause what should he put the preflop raiser on when he calls flop. Are both on draws and will my 88,99 survive to the river,no.
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