[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
So you're saying that our bet on the end has nothing to do with the pot odds? Just a raw 50% then?

[/ QUOTE ]

In position value betting is easy, and has nothing to do with pot odds. HPFAP puts out 55% as the percent of time you need to expect to be ahead when you are called.

One of the following will happen if you bet:
a) Villain will fold
b) Villain will call
c) Villain will raise

If villain folds, you either
1) Win a whole bonus pot if villain folds a better hand
2) Gain nothing EXTRA because you had the best hand and villain didn't pay you off.

Since we're talking about value betting, we're not folding out better hands. So it doesn't even factor into our calculation. We cannot possibly win anything extra if villain is going to fold. This is the reason for the WHEN YOU ARE CALLED clause.

If villain calls, you either
1) Win an extra bet if you have the best hand
2) Lose an extra bet if you have the worst hand

If you are ahead 50% of the time, then you win 1 BB 50% of the time and lose 1 BB 50% of the time. A quick EV calculation shows that this is EV = 0. So if you're ahead more, you win, and if you're behind more, you lose.

If villain raises, we have a decision to make. The extra 5% is a bit of a buffer for when this happens. Sometimes pay off, and sometimes fold. It just depends.