Re: Yes that river card was truly excellent THANK U (NL50 Flopped nuts
I go $3 on flop, but not sure it makes any difference. (I like Milller and Sklansky's "when in doubt bet a bit too much rather than a bit too little").
I think Kaz is right: Villain's calling range is narrower than his betting range and mainly consists of hands that beat us, and his betting range includes plenty of hands we beat that won't call a bet.
But I guess there is one main problem with this: if we check and he asks us a question for our stack, we probably have to fold, perhaps the better hand.
I guess the answer is that if we don't think he will push-bluff, but may stab-bluff, then c/c > bet/whatever.
I also think there's a pot control issue here (ok, I know we are OOP and you can't control pot OOP blah blah). But I think we can limit damage by not betting. I think the amount of value we are giving up by not betting is meh.
Also (this may sound glib, but I think it's important): we are OOP with 78o in an unraised pot. This will look horrible in session review later if you lose half a stack here. Ed Miller says in a fantastic article that small decisions become easier if you step back and look at the big picture. In this case, the big picture is OOP/78o/unraised pot. That makes me want to keep this river under as much control as possible.
So I check/call modest bet.
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