Re: Justin Morneau
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OTOH, he's also very capable of hitting Schneid's predicted numbers too. He's the reigning MVP after all!!!!!!!!
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bwahahahaha!!! sorry. i thought you were being funny.
getting the award (as in not winning it. yeah, i am bitter) last season means nothing. yes, he improved his hit-chart last season, but his BABIP suggests that he may have been running kind of hot (as in lucky) after the AS break. .365 is high. high enough that only a few players a year do it, and most don't repeat.
sure, he probably won't regress down to .300 BABIP, but figures like .335-.340 are closer to where he *should* average. basically, this is why pretty much all of the prediction systems (Marcel, CHONE, ZiPS) say that his 2007 season will be around .300/33/100.
perhaps you could bump that line up because of his improved swing, but not necessarily 20 point and 20 rbi's.
anyways, that's just my 2 cents. also, i'd put $50 on morneau doing worse than .320/40/130.
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