At first this seems like a simple micro-stakes question but there's more to it.
Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $5/$10
6 players
Converter
Stack sizes:
UTG: $1530.80
UTG+1: $1000
Hero: $3861.75
Button: $5267
SB: $1463
BB: $3468
Pre-flop: (
6 players) Hero is CO with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises to $40</font>, Hero calls,
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $300</font>, UTG+1 folds, Hero ???
BB is "twin-caracas" a good winning regular in the high NL games on Stars. We are 345bb deep, and I have position. It's 260 to call or 7.5% of my stack (conveniently right in the middle of the 5/100 rule).
I would imagine that he knows that if I call his large re-raise that a small-to-mid pocket pair is most of my range. And we are super deep, so it's not like a very good high stakes NL player is going to stack off for 350bb with aces on a rag rainbow flop. However, we do have position on him and thus can squeeze more value out of him post-flop.
I've been playing straight-up but won a couple big pots. He's been playing pretty aggressively pre-flop and on the flop.
Some simple math - 7.5 to 1 to flop a set... means we need to win 7.5 times $260 on average = $1950. Minus the $380 already in there, and a $4-500 continuation bet we expect to at least get out of him, can we expect to make ~$1100 on average over and above the pre-flop and flop continuation bet money?
Is this call +EV?