Re: A Hand I Played
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I don't think anyone ever folds a 9, but they play this way basically every time. 4x or 2x might fold now, but even if they always call, those hands combined are probably less likely than 9x because of two reasons:
1. They're less playable hands, even for just completing in the SB. Like, I'm sure this guy isn't open completing J2o or T4o, but I bet he plays 96o.
2. He called your turn raise.
There is also the chance that he check raised the flop with an Ax gutshot hand like A3 or A5 (or one of the playable 2x or 4x hands like A2 or A4). There's also the chance he check raised the flop with air like JTo and now bet/called the turn with his newfound top pair.
River bet can't be good.
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The villain cant have Ax, he wouldve raised preflop. I think many player types will fold 9x after I take this line on that board and I believe this guy falls into that category. I agree with you that 9x is more likely than 4x or 2x given his turn call, but I dont completely rule out 4x and 2x from his range on the river.
I also wouldnt worry about the Jack hitting the villain on the turn, that card is basically a blank given the flop action.
About your statement that the river bet cant be good. I actually strongly disagree with you on that one. I personally love the river bet.
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