Re: Sports Statistics
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The NFL QB Rating is a system that is constantly used as a determination of a quarterback's talent on ESPN and FOX and the other networks, and it is a perfect example of a results-oriented statistical system.
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except it actually doesn't measure results that well.
Situation 1: 3rd and 10, QB makes a completion of 8 yards
Situation 2: 3rd and 3, QB makes a completion of 4 yards
Situation 1 would give a QB a better rating than Situation 2, even though the play was a failure, and Situation 2 was a success. even some completed passes for negative yards can boost a QB rating.
another example I found:
Imagine two quarterbacks -- Super Joe and Broadway Joe -- who both drive their teams 30 yards to a touchdown in three plays. Super Joe does it with three 10-yard passes. His completion percentage is 100, and for the drive his rating is 147.9. Broadway Joe throws two incomplete passes, then on a clutch third and long he finds a receiver in the end zone -- touchdown! For the exact same result, his rating is 111.1.
it penalizes guys who throw long, overly credits short passes, and has too big a penalty for INT's. it doesn't include sacks or rushing.
basically, what's wrong with it is the same thing wrong with many other football stat's: it doesn't take into account the situation.
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KBZ, have you read the DVOA stuff on footballoutsiders.com? It is a statistical measure of this exact problem. It rewards a 3 yard gain on 3rd and 2 but penalizes for it on 1st and 10.
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