Re: How I choose which games to bet on - fading public perception
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So how do I know which teams Joe Public is on?
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Wagerline?
OP: Nice write up, I appreciate your time and effort. While I think your reasoning is valid, I don't agree on your percetion of spreads vs. ML.
There's value to be found in each betting type and have yet to actually see stats that prove ML being superior to spreads in regard to value maximization. If anyone can provide an article, etc., I'd be thankful for a hint regarding this matter.
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This is true. However, I believe that M/L bets provide extra value because they help make my losses smaller and make my gains bigger. Meanwhile, because the games won difference between M/L betting and point spread betting should only be 20% of the total games. Meaning that if I'd won 100 games before (betting just the point spread), I'd still win 75-80 games betting the M/L. If this was, say, over a 200 game sample, then that means my games lost changed from 100 to 125. But I'd save 10 cents on every loss up to loss #100, saving me 10 units. This helps to offset the 20-25 game difference immediately. Then, the rest should presumably be made up in the extra value from the M/L winnings. So, ultimately, it depends on the odds you get, plus your winning percentage.
I believe that by fading the public, you will increase your winning percentage, and with careful line shopping, you can increase the value of your odds. Ergo, profit.
Of course, this depends a lot on your line shopping, game choosing, etc.
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