[Nate.]

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I think that a thinking BB will have a very hard time not leading a safe turn, so I'm not going to lose action by raising now.

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so you're raising the flop expecting BB to lead the turn?

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I think it's probable. BB can also checkraise the turn with a worse hand, trying to shut out LMP's likely garbage (not that this would always be the best play).

BTW, if you're skeptical, you're in good company, because a very good player thought, over the table, that calling + coming alive on the turn was better.

--Nate