[Abrams]

I’ve heard many people say that the variance in limit draw is less than any other game. But what does that mean in actual play?

I just finished playing a session of $1 / $2 limit draw where I bought in for $60 and slowly lost it all. It seemed as if one of two things would happen nearly every time: either (1) my good hand would run into a better hand. That is I would have pre-draw KK66x and the next guy behind me would have JJJxx pre-draw. I would get 888xx pre-draw, and the next guy would have a pat hand. I would have AAxxx on the button, which figures to be the best hand against only the blinds, and one of the blinds would have 2 pair. Or (2) I would have the better hand pre-draw and if I was called I would be out-drawn on. I never limp into a pot (Unless I am in the small blind, there are two or more callers to my right and I have a decent but not great hand that I am hoping will improve.) so its not like I am giving people a free chance to draw out.

(It might also be worth noting that I only bluffed twice the entire session. The first time I bluffed was early in the session. A player limped under the gun (which my notes on him said he would do with big pairs and maybe even some 2 pair hands). I was on the button with 88xxx. The plan was to fold, but I miss-clicked and raised. The blinds folded. The UTG player called and drew 3. I drew 3 not improving. He checked and I bet, figuring what the hell I might as well continue the bluff trying to represent AA that either drew trips or 2 pair. He called and I lost the hand and gained a good image as a maniac (which is great if my freaking hands would hold up). The other time was a dumb move I normally would never make, but it was near the last hand and I was basically done. I was steaming after loosing almost my entire buy-in and it was the one deviation from my normal play. Aside from these two dumb plays, ever other loss was one of the two above situations.

So here’s the question: with the low variance in 5 card draw how often should one loose an entire buy in due primarily to bad luck? Is it something like 1 in 3 sessions, or something more like almost never (assuming you don’t just quit after loosing half your buy-in and walk away to go kick your dog or something – just kidding about the dog thing)? Several times earlier this week I would be playing $.5 / $1 limit 5CD, buy in for $30 and go down about a third or slightly more experiencing a run of the same unlucky above 2 situations. I would sit there and play forever until I got back up to even or a big bet or 2 ahead. (lower limit = noticeably more bad players with large calling ranges = more bad beats) One or two more bad beats and I could easily have been on the road to another loosing session. Right now it seems like there is less variance in NL hold’em cash games.

Edit: BTW: Is there some secret to sending private messages to others? I have now sent 3. The screen says it was successfully sent. Later I will go to my page where you can view private messages and it says I have sent 0 private messages. What gives?