[jlkrusty]

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I would still argue it's very -EV still since you stack off only about half the time (half the time you are shutting down with AK after flop bet)

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I agree with you, smart and very correct. His slightly +EV is completely false.. the assumption AA will never fold is wrong. The flop could also be 7 7 5 or 5 5 7 or 3s 4s 5s making easier for AA to fold.... and if you have AsAd is not even that wrong to call this push even if the opponent hit his set. So he will not always win if he hits, this EV logic is not entirely correct!

This might be a strange conclusion but push the flop. There are other good reasons to push here.... They called so heavy -EV preflop that you shouldn't fold this flop.

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The reg in MP doesn't have to stack off against only me to make it +EV for him to call. He can also try to stack off against loose donk. So, even if don't stack of because I've got AK or something, MP may think the difference will be made up against loose donk. Or, there may be some situations where he can get both of us to build the pot and create a hugely positive EV situation for his preflop call. Whatever his EV, I think we should be able to at least agree that the preflop call is close to overall neutral EV, and that it MP's perception could have easily been that he did have +EV to make the call. MP didn't have the time to run long mathematical proofs about his EV. He may have even known that it was a close decision. As stated in the orginal problem, he thought for a while before making the preflop call.

Anyhow, for sake of argument, let's assume we can somehow prove his preflop call was slightly -EV. I don't like the strategy of just stacking off postflop just because we've arrived at that conclusion. Why not try to maximize our EV by finding some occassional folds even on this ragged board?

Most have said I should have bet around $120 post flop. How do I follow through if I make that bet. Assume one of two things happen from my $120 bet:

1. Loose donk calls and MP check raises the minimum to $240; or
2. Loose donk calls, but MP still check raises me the minimum to $240.

What's my course now? Just get it in under both hypos, or do I somehow find a fold in either case?