[franknagaijr]

I ran a quick spreadsheet calc, and I also see a fold as follows:

Assumption 1: If Niss repots the flop, V will fold pure air and call with anything else.
Assumption 2: If Niss repots, he will commit if V repots. This makes his EV for these scenarios as follows:
JJxx=$90 (can hit one of two aces to win)
J9 or J4=$181 (can hit the the pair villain does not have to win, or an ace)
OESD = $653 (Niss is ~65% to win)
Jxxx not two pair =$607 (V has one more out than OESD)

If you put together a chart, if you have 30% reason to believe that V has JJ and 70% that V has air, it's a losing play (EV $460), and if you redistribute the 70% among the other possibilities, it's still a losing play.

This is a marginally winning play if you are 60% sure villain has air, or if Villain would push with an overpair to the board. Otherwise, your EV is negative here.

Caveat: I'm not DaveBreal.

Edit: I must have top-pair/OESD blindness. I missed factoring in that combo, and it obv makes the numbers worse. Fold.

Edit 2: I also didn't factor in V having backdoor low draws, of which Niss has none. Number drop, obv. Still a fold.