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Old 03-27-2007, 05:58 AM
RobNottsUk RobNottsUk is offline
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Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 359
Default Re: Another Sit n Go Question

Not sure who that last comment is aimed at, or what it's meant to mean.

Perhaps the point is, that here there is no fold equity, the BB outstacks the SB, yet SB is pushing. Consistency with certain views in other threads, would suggest that the SB is going to be playing extremely tight, knowing the 'correct' strategy is to knock out the short stacks. So what basket of hands, is our clever SB on? I've seen SnG players argue for folding, all kinds of hands in situations like this eg) TT.

After all, those who see ITM as the goal, might be folding the SB here, without a big hand, rather than risk being bust out. Attacking the 'medium' stacks rather than the big stacks and all that.

If you lose the hand, then unfortunately you'll be All In on the next SB. The shorties have just enough to outlast you, unless the blinds are just about to rise.

However, I think if the SB had AA, generally a smaller raise (or smooth call limping) would be made to tempt a re-raise All In, and so I think the worst case is to be up against an Ace. Of course the SB is smart and may outplay us by deceptively Pushing with the nuts.

As a 70:30 favourite in the hand, I think roughly the TEV would be improved only very slightly by calling. The reason is the almost nailed on win of 50% prize pool for busting the SB, is mitigated by the need for some luck to make 20% of prize pool if you lose the hand.

So when you call, you want to see QQ ideally, not AK!

If SB follows ICM and knows the BB folds almost everything, then it's an easy call, against a loose raiser. You're going to be better than 75:25 too often to fold.
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