Re: Going for river sexy-time with the nut full house.
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Also to note they bluff missed draws 5% of the time, and raise bluff draws 1% (ballpark numbers, but they're probably close.)
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I don't agree there. I think they bluff much more than 5%, and they bluff-raise close to never after I lead at the pot 3 times.
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Okay zomg fine. Let's say he calls with medium strength hands 33% of the time, and bluffs missed draws 20% of the time (if you believe this is higher than 1 in 5 wowowowo.) Just based on these numbers DUCY betting is better?
*assuming he checks behind medium strength hands less than 13% of the time which I presume is true since people make thin value bets even less than bluffing missed draws*
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