Thread: accuracy of PECOTA team wins
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Old 03-22-2007, 05:00 PM
Kneel B4 Zod Kneel B4 Zod is offline
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Default accuracy of PECOTA team wins
does anyone know of any studies which track how accurate projected team wins (per PECOTA) are? I saw back in 2004 Nate did a study on individual PECOTA projections vs. other projection systems, but I haven't been able to find anything like this on team wins.

I'm looking at these in contrast w/ Vegas lines, and there are some big differences. for instance...

The over/under on Tampa Bay is 67, over -115. Thats 11 games less than the projected PECOTA wins.

The over/under on Toronto is 86.5, while PECOTA projects 80, and the under is +105.
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