[ItalianFX]

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 19.318% 17.01% 02.31% 5222706 708021.38 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 19.320% 17.01% 02.30% 5223465 707624.88 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 19.324% 17.02% 02.31% 5224284 708034.22 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 3: 19.321% 17.02% 02.31% 5223810 707800.72 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 4: 22.717% 22.67% 00.04% 6960379 13789.80 { 7s6s }


It seems as though this is very tight. Assigning this range to all of these hands is like optimizing data to fit your parameters. It's like fitting data so that you can get the results that you want.

There are too many assumptions to make about these players because they are humans. It is very unreasonable to assume they are all holding premium hands. You can't will the players to have the hands that you want them to hold.

Some may go all-in with a pocket pair because they figure if they can hit a set that they are in for the gold rush. Another may go all-in because he has a legitimately strong hand that is worth pushing or calling a raise.

The fact is that most players are irrational. Some will say, "You were pushing alot of hands so I had to take a chance."

The only thing I find odd about this is that you are opening an alternative that busting out of this tournament implies that you go and play a cash game. If that is the case, then you could just go all-in with every hand because you don't value the tournament like the other players do. On that same note, the fact that you are content with busting and being able to go play a cash game without a second thought leads me to believe that you <u>should</u> just call here with any two (preferably cards that will be deemed live because the opportunity to quadruple up is huge and probably doesn't happen very often - assuming that you play good poker after you win the hand.

Another case is that you will be facing overcards 100% of the time. You are leaving yourself with 19 outs preflop, and then when the overcards are shown, you probably have 9 outs at most (three 6's, three 7's, and 3 spades to catch a monster flush). That is also assuming that nobody else is playing with pocket spades. However, the likelihood that a pair of 6's or 7's will be good is very small; therefore, we must rely on the fact that you have to hit two pair, three of a kind, or the flush, and maybe the fullhouse, which is even a smaller amount, or dodge every card in the deck and win with one pair. I don't know the numbers and I'm not going to try to figure them out or go out of my way to figure them out, but it seems to me that the chances of hitting a big hand on the board is probably pretty slim and shouldn't be the sole purpose of playing this hand.

In my opinion, the fact that you are willing to bust and go out and play a cash game negates any effects of expected value because you are not playing with expected value. You are essentially playing only equity and the amount of chips that you will gain if you come out with the best hand - assuming you slow down and play poker.

Note: I'm no poker scholar and it may be evident by this post. I tried to think through things and come up with a thoughtful explanation. I could be completely wrong, but it was worth a shot.