[stinkypete]

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Luck is very easy to quantify VERY accurately in the short term using standard deviation, especially over a small sample, where the effects of an unknown winrate are much less.

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you're missing the entire point of analyzing your results. the purpose isn't to determine how lucky/unlucky you are in the short term. who cares if you ran approx. 10-15bb/100 below expectation? what does that tell you?

the point of analyses like this is to help determine how much money you can expect to make in the game. that's what my analysis does. it removes a very significant portion of the variance of all in pots by removing the variance that is caused by the fact that there's cards still left to come after the money goes in.

since most of the all in hands are all in preflop, the only real variance left is the variance in hole card distributions. and hole card distributions converge much, much faster than overall winrate, so this analysis gets us to the result we want with only a small hand sample.


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IF the effect of an unknown winrate is greater than the effect of the variance not included in your method, (not likely at all in short term, especially for a winning player) then your method is better.

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you're correct on everything here except the part in brackets, which varies case by case. for someone like me with a small number of hands at this limit, i'm pretty sure its not true.

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You won't do the calcs you said you would, or even give up your SD or possible winrates, so it's pointless to argue with you.

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what calcs did i say i would do? i'm pretty sure i posted all the winrate info i have. but here it is again: -10.81BB/100.

my standard deviation is 23.62ptbb/100 according to pokertracker.

i'm sure you'll have a blast with these numbers, cuz they tell you a lot.