[stinkypete]

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even if you knew your standard deviation and winrate (which is impossible), you could do no meaningful analysis because your winrate changes based on game conditions and how you're playing - and unless you're a bot, you're not gonna play the same all the time.

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Standard deviation is easy to know, it converges very quickly. I don't know what kind of sample size you have for your winrate, but it is possible to get a good idea of it. Winrate changes based on game conditions are just part of the standard deviation (so that you are really estimating wr+e, where e is your actual deviation from wr). If you want, you can estimate your winrate as less, since you said you were playing bad. I don't think that a 200ptbb swing over 1700 hands will be anywhere near .5%, unless shortstackers have some crazy low SD compared to normal players. 4 buyin swings are very common.

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you can say that game conditions, tilt, etc are all a part of the standard deviation, but when these things change and you're dealing with a small sample of hands, you have no way of determining how much of your downswing was bad play or bad games and how much of it was running bad.

the goal, at least in my case, is to measure luck and luck only, and that means using statistics that are independent of tilt and bad game selection.

my method does a much better job of measuring luck than any winrate/sd calculations will over a short sample.

in fact, if you ignored how much you actually won from all in pots and used my method to calculate projected winnings, you could get an idea of what your winrate is much faster than by simply playing and going by what your results are. in fact, even over a very large sample, using my method you'll get a more accurate prediction of your true winrate.

and yes, shortstackers have a much lower SD. as a self-proclaimed stats nit, that should be obvious to you. the problem is you have all the book knowledge but you don't really understand what you know.

a 20 short buyin downswing is very significant.