[MrWookie]

If you're playing at tables where people will fold AA to a raise on this flop, PM me w/ where you play.

My initial thought on this hand is that it was an easy fold. With SB donking in to TWO preflop aggressors AND with us facing an aggressor behind us who's capable of raising draws, I don't want to pay two bets on this flop. We don't even have backdoors to help save our ass.

Then I looked at the absurd pot size. If you knew you were paying one bet here, you could peel. You'd have the implied odds to catch your set, and heck, if you knew you'd only be paying one bet, the chance you're ahead is somewhat reasonable. However, we don't know we'll only be paying one bet, and if we get raised, our odds go straight into the toilet. We know MP will be raising AK, AA, maybe KK, and AsQs. That's 22 hands, although given the odds that a K is also in SB's hand, we're more properly going to be somewhere between 16 and 22 hands that he's raising. The hands he's not raising are TT-QQ and the other AQs hands, which is 21 hands. Best case, we're getting raised here 43% of the time, so our odds are more properly about 18.43:1.43, or 12.9:1. To draw to a set, we'd need to make up about 13 SB's. That's pretty optimistic here, esp. since sometimes we'll get flushed when the Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] falls, and sometimes we get pwned by KK.

Am I being a little pessimistic about ranges? Maybe, but I still don't see SB donking 72o here very much. He still called 2.5 SB preflop, and he's still betting into two people who've shown tremendous strength. We're drawing to a set here way more often than you guys seem to think.

For those of you raising, WTF? I guess we do protect our hand against TT and JJ, but really, that's just protecting SB's hand for him.