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Old 02-18-2006, 06:44 AM
Buzz Buzz is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: L.A.
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Default Re: Limit Omaha Hi/Lo $0.50/$1, three backdoor draws on the flop

Matt - In my humble opinion, this is a difficult decision. You won't improve to better than two pair more than 80% of the time, and with eight opponents seeing the flop, you'll almost surely have to improve to at least trips or better to win. here's how often Hero simulates to make each type of hand (out of 10,000 times) if he sticks around to see the river:
4505 one pair (the aces)
3675 two pairs
788 trips
274 straight
465 flush
282 full house
11 quads

If hero makes two types of the above hands, only the better one is listed. For example, if Hero makes a straight and a flush, only the flush shows in the above totals.

Hero figures to make low after this flop 10*16/990 = about 16%, roughly one time in every six.

That all should give you an idea of what the various back door draws are worth.

If I ran that same simulation again, I'd expect to get slightly different numbers. (Not the low; I calculated the low).

Yet despite all these negatives, you should probably see one more card if you can do so cheaply.

But then you have to hit the turn very well to continue. You should really want to see a club or the ace of spades on the turn to continue. The four of spades is not really what you wanted.

Tough to fold here with the nut low draw. But except for the three non-diamond fives and maybe the ace of spades, you only have twelve outs for half (3/5) or a quarter (2/5) of the pot.

This is a tough hand to play after this flop. Considering your opposition, I think you see one more card for one more small bet, but then reluctantly fold when it's the four of spades, in spite of having picked up the nut low draw on the turn.

Buzz
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