[bbartlog]

Yes, of course the frequency with which you end up against a better A2 hand is critical, as is evaluating how often you will be called by hands like TTxx (or far worse) that you have a significant edge on. Only the player sitting at the table can make a reasonable guess as to what sort of bad hands people might call with, but we can take a stab at answering the first part of the question. In general someone else will be holding A2xx about 30% of the time when we have A2 (in a situation with this many limpers we could bump up our estimate of the chance a little bit, but let's leave it). The odds that one of the remaining two cards in their hand paired the flop are about 30% as well, and to that we can add the chance they have a pair in hand (something like A266 or whatever). On the whole it looks like about a 10% chance that we get called by a hand that's 60/40 against us. Even if caller is as deepstacked as we are, expectation is only -$50 or so (x 10%), so it looks like you're right: pushing *is* +EV even without adding in calls by donk hands.