[Galwegian]

[ QUOTE ]


There's absoloutly no rigorous reason to believe that the expectation for a number of hands averages to the expectation for the hand villain actually has.

So in fact there's a subtle problem with the process above and beyond any problems of execution.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have to object here - this statement (as far as I can work out) is meaningless. What is "the expectation for a number of hands"? What is "expectation for the hand that the villain actually has"? I respectfully suggest that you should spend some time reviewing your understanding of expectations and distributions. The "process" is not flawed. If you find yourself making bad calls because of overestimating the villains hand range, then it is likely a flaw in your hand reading skills.