[SplawnDarts]

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You still need some means to evaluate the strength of your hand against that of an opponent.

If you're consistently finding that your hand range estimates are too wide, you adjust and refine them - you don't just abandon the process! That's a flaw in your reading ability, not the process itself.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, there's a flaw in the process itself.

Averaging is only useful if the mean of the things you are averaging equals the accurate value you're trying to get. In this case, the value we're trying to get is our expectation with respect to villain's hand.

There's absoloutly no rigorous reason to believe that the expectation for a number of hands averages to the expectation for the hand villain actually has.

So in fact there's a subtle problem with the process above and beyond any problems of execution.