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Old 03-13-2007, 07:32 PM
TheGrifter TheGrifter is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 2,389
Default Re: 10/15 NL- opinions on this laydown.....

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It is surprising to me how so many people are acting like OP left $1275 on the table in this hand. Its not like he mucked the winner after Villain showed AQ (again Villain never showed his hand). On the surface this seems like an apparent "amazing" or "horrendous" laydown, however, I believe this was actually a fairly insignificant EV decision.

I feel this was either a well played 33 or a slightly misplayed QQ or AQ by villain, with a few other possibilities. To put some numbers on it, I think OP had the winner here between 10% to 33% of the time here, making the call somewhere between a -$232 to a +$158 EV decision, and most likely relatively close to an insignificant EV call.

The most interesting thing to me is the Metagame aspect of this hand. No matter what the OP's EV was on this call, it seems he made significantly more in this game by showing this laydown, and taking advantage of it for the remainder of the night.

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What regarding the villain's play in this hand leads you to believe he has a FH up to 90% of the time? The OP badly misplayed this hand on the turn and the river call isn't nearly as close as you are trying to say it is.
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