[creedofhubris]

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I can't believe six people called 20 BBs preflop. WTF.

How about just pushing the flop? There's a shitton of money in that pot.

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push flop, seriously? this feels excessive and -ev, i still can't think of a great line for op to take when checked to on flop - imo most flop c/r's are beating op, basically forcing him to decide whether or not he wants to get it ai on flop b/c i dont see ppl in this scenario making a move into such a large field. but by pushing you let your opponents play perfectly.

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That was my first response, too, but then I thought about how many times I've seen this push paid off by top pair etc., even from a tight player. I sometimes just can't get into this mindset, but I suspect a super-solid (not meant in a bad way) player like creed makes this type of play quite a bit. Care to share any thoughts, creed? Does it go beyond, "People are idiots who will call?"

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Six guys just called 20 BBs preflop. Isn't that proof that people are idiots who will call?

Here's my logic for the flop push:

Ideally I'd want to play a big one-pair hand in an enormous pot in a fashion that would:

1) allow me to determine if I'm beat and lay down my hand
2) provoke opponents into raising heavily with worse hands
3) provoke opponents into calling off a stack with worse hands
4) limit the chance of being outdrawn


I can't think of a line to let me lay down my hand on this board with the pot this size; I'm not that confident in my live reads and I'd rather rely on the statistical strength of my hand in this spot than my ability to decide how much a donk likes his hand.

I can't think of a way to get an opponent to raise me with an inferior holding. I don't think villains will interpret a weak lead as an invitation to raise here, since a ton of poor players in OP's spot will bet small then call a raise with their premium pairs in this spot. It seems to me quite likely that opponents will smoothcall even a small bet with one-pair hands, just like John the Lawyer did. He played the hand pretty well, I think.

Since I can't accomplish goal #1 or #2, I look for a line to maximize the chance of having an inferior holding stack off to me while limiting the chance of being outdrawn.

A flop check or a weak flop bet both fail to accomplish those goals. So to me the choice is between a heavy flop bet and an allin overbet.

I think a ~pot-sized flop bet is apparent for what it is, a strong one pair hand. I suppose it could be a pure bluff with no outs, but if you're a tight player (like me, or OP, it appears) who is incapable of getting to this spot with a suited connector, then people are going to think you are v. v. strong when you lead for the pot here.

Specifically, leading for the pot eliminates overcards from your range. With position, checking behind would be a much better play with AK than potting it. To provoke a bad call from an opponent, you need to leave in your opponent's minds the possibility that you are on overs and their midpair is good, and leading for the pot will not do that, because it's obvious that for overcards, checking is a much stronger play than a pot-sized bet.

However, an allin is a conceivable play with overs here. While checking is better than potting, pushing might be better than checking; you have great fold equity if you've always shown down solid hands, and if called you can pray that your over outs are good. Since the board is suited, there's also the chance that you have two big suited cards here and are semibluffing allin. So a decent opponent might talk himself into a heroic call.

That's my thinking, at least.