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Old 03-13-2007, 04:11 PM
BruceZ BruceZ is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 4,078
Default Re: Faults in my math? (easy one)

[ QUOTE ]
Hi! Let's say that I have a flus draw on the flop and gets all-in, then I say that it is:

(9/47)+(9/46)=0,387141.......

That's quite right, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong. It is 9/47 + (1-9/47)*9/46. The 9/46 only applies to the times that you miss on the turn since the 9/47 already accounts for the times that you hit on the turn, so you must multiply 9/46 by the probability of missing on the turn (1-9/47). This gives P(hit on the turn) + P(miss on the turn AND hit on the river).

This post gives 3 correct methods for the flush draw problem. Method 3 is the inclusion-exclusion principle.
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