[jalapenoguy]

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personally, i will buy whatever hd-format that has most/all of the dvds as dual-format...i'm not buying dvds that only play on bluray or hddvd player as i like being able to watch my dvds on any player in the house, at friends' houses, on my portable player, on my computer, etc

as of now, hd-dvd has many dual-format discs and blu-ray has none

i suspect that hd-dvd will win out if it continues to increase the number of dual-format and blu-ray does not adopt a dual-format path

i'm more hi-tech than 99% of consumers and i think many of them would be even more reluctant to buy a dvd for $25-30 (instead of 10ish) that only works on one player that they own

people switched from vhs to dvd because it offered more features (no rewinding, instant skip, bonus features, commentary, no degredation in quality over time, etc), not because of the better visual/audio quality...

people will be more hesitant to upgrade just because of visual/audio quality when only 15% have hdtvs right now and u can only play the dvd on one player

it'll happen eventually, as prices drop and more people get hdtvs in more rooms in their house...but dual-format discs being the standard will greatly increase the speed of adoption

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the number of households with hdtvs is around 30 percent. Aside from childrens movies, most dvd's that get bought end up getting watched once, computers/portable players using hd technology won't be far off. I don't think dual discs are a big issue at all.

I think what will end up happening is in a couple of years nearly all of the players will be dual as opposed to the discs leading to both formats being out there. sony's film properties could keep blue ray alive by themselves.

i agree with everything you said in terms of upgrade. at the moment the only people who are getting worked up over the quality difference are the super film geeks who describe the most mundane things on the discs. Anytime you have to explain to somebody why the quality is so much better, its not gonna make a big impact.