So, I was bored tonight, and decided to write a little computer program that simulates the outcome of the NCAA tournament. I used
www.kenpom.com for his pythagorian rankings, and the log5 method that was original done by Bill James and modified for basketball. I don't really understand it, but it seems to work ok, and is easy enough to program. Anyways, while I mostly did it for my own enjoyment, but figured I should share it with all you guys. I'm pretty sure the calculations are right, they seem to make sense, and the little sneak peek on Pomeroy's website lists 10 teams with a 2% or greater chance of winning, which I also got. So, anyways, here's the top teams according to this method, hope it helps some of you with your brackets.
UNC: 21.28%
Kansas: 19.25%
Ohio St: 11.31%
Florida: 11.10%
Georgetown: 8.88%
Texas A&M: 6.67%
Wisconsin: 5.54%
UCLA: 3.05%
Memphis: 2.60%
Maryland: 2.1%
Here's a pdf link to the full results, with all teams broken down by brackets and full odds on them getting to each round.
Bracket odds