View Single Post
  #15  
Old 03-09-2007, 02:11 AM
0evg0 0evg0 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: mano a mano
Posts: 9,235
Default Re: Wynn 10k Poker Classic Hand

i think not shoving here is a pretty bad mistake

you have the only hand in your range that he's behind. your hand looks a lot like some kind of goofy limped 88-JJ preflop. if you call the turn bet though, he cant expect you to be folding the river that often, so his suddenly small (3k into almost 8k) bet is really weird and might be one of those weak-because-i'm-weak (as in naked trips) bets as opposed to omg-cant-let-him-get-away-from-JJ or something.

basically, a flop c/r with 66/76 is really weird, and people just dont underbet the pot that bad when they river a boat (if he had 86). so that leaves 62 and while it's certainly possible, it's a weird line to take with it with the flop c/r and the small bets.

i just dont see him being able to fold Q6/K6/A6 after playing so weird.

FWIW though, i'm really not crazy about the turn call. if it was something like a T or a J that could add extra FE on a river bluff, I wouldn't mind. but on such a blank card, meh.

edit: i'm basing a lot of my decision on the fact that based on this play, he seems to not be the best player. if he knows who you are though, and that you're not limping overpairs to the flop preflop, or that you're never raising the river with anything that trips beat (besides air obv), than i'm just calling river. basically, this guy seems to suck, so i'm treating him like he sucks by overvaluing a medium-strength hand.
Reply With Quote