[jeffnc]

[ QUOTE ]
You do realize that there are like 1300 some starting hands and the probability of running into AA every time is very small? I'm not a statistics guru, but I think a 5-year old could figure that out.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, you are still not getting it. Obviously the odds of running into AA when you have KK is very very small. That goes without saying.

What I am saying is that I am seeing a tighter range than conventional wisdom states in the following case:
- a raising war starts preflop
- a 4th raise (usually) is made

In this case, for calling the 4th raise (or making the 4th raise all in) while holding KK, you will see AA some percentage of the time. You have huge negative expectation in that case. To be +EV with KK, you have to see hands other than AA a large enough amount of time to more than make up for the times you see AA. You have to see QQ/JJ/AK etc enough. If you see AA 50% of the time and some combination of those other hands 50% of the time, you will lose money. (you will beat AA as often as you lose to QQ/JJ, but AK is less of an underdog to KK than QQ/JJ).

So, when you hold KK and call an all in, or are called when you push, then I am asking if others are seeing AA too often nowadays, like I am. The odds of someone holding AA when you hold KK are not relevant. The relevant odds are what they hold those times they are willing to put all their chips in the middle.