[bbartlog]

Can anyone speculate as to why?

Sheer variance most likely. At least I assume that by 'look like a donk' you mean 'have lost money so far' and not 'keep getting my money in as a dog'. I don't know how many large tournaments someone would have to play in order to conclude with 95% confidence that their total wins or losses were an accurate reflection of their expectation against the field, but I'm sure it's a very large number.