[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
People may hate this, but I think the turn is a fold.


You say villain is a TAG and you respect his 3-bet. This means the only hand you're likely ahead of it AK with a single diamond here - maybe 99 with a diamond, but way way less likely.

On the turn, you're getting just over 5:1 to call. There are 9 diamonds left in the deck, but we have to discount for those times villain has A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and the reverse implied odds that follow from that. Therefore, I'm saying allow for about 6 effective outs - just off the top of my head. Therefore you need 7:1 money to break even.

Now there remains the slight chance that your are still ahead (subject to redraws, though). I don't think this makes up for the difference here.


The turn is a fold.


AS

[/ QUOTE ]


turn fold, lmao


Yes, if he has AA, no diamond, we are in BIIIIIIIIIIG trouble with 11 outs. And if he has AK, no diamond, we are in BIIIIIIIIIIG trouble with 75% equity.

Sure, he's going to have a set sometimes, and a AA with a diamond sometimes. But so what, it's a decent pot, and we have a good draw.

If you miss the river, then check/fold. Folding this turn is bad.

And, if he's a straight forward player, he won't bet the river with AK because he knows you are showing down when you call the turn.