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Old 03-04-2007, 11:43 AM
Adam Stewart Adam Stewart is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 3,261
Default Re: TT and flush draw

People may hate this, but I think the turn is a fold.


You say villain is a TAG and you respect his 3-bet. This means the only hand you're likely ahead of it AK with a single diamond here - maybe 99 with a diamond, but way way less likely.

On the turn, you're getting just over 5:1 to call. There are 9 diamonds left in the deck, but we have to discount for those times villain has A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and the reverse implied odds that follow from that. Therefore, I'm saying allow for about 6 effective outs - just off the top of my head. Therefore you need 7:1 money to break even.

Now there remains the slight chance that your are still ahead (subject to redraws, though). I don't think this makes up for the difference here.


The turn is a fold.


AS
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