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Old 03-04-2007, 01:28 AM
RiverFenix RiverFenix is offline
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Default Re: 3 commerce hands

Edit: crap, didnt see river was a club. Raising is pretty silly here.

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if you dont mind me asking, what is he paying off with? He check called flop with Kx?

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I guess it would be helpful to know if you had the Kc.

I see it as he either has a K here or missed clubs.

Im not entirely sure what hes doing w/ AK/KQ/KJxx pf but this is a solid flop for him to bluff-peel OOP with. Possibly 6 outs, bluff equity, possibly 15 if holding a hand like KJ/KQcc.
Anyway, if hes bluffing or has a really strong hand he grossely misplays the turn. Any sort of check raise here is so much better than a riv 1/2pot donk if he wants to get value w/ a 7 or 44. I may be reading too far into the instacall it but it seems like the K helped his hand and he abandoned any plan to bluff and wants to showdown.

River just looks like a vbet/blocker to me. If its a bluff he has to figure youre looking him up since hes not really representing any real strength, but you said he made bad bluffs before so cant rule out suited connecting clubs.

Not entirely sure what Kxs he'll talk himself into calling a raise with but I think youre missing value by not raising top two and letting him make a decision. Also, I dont think the odds of him 3b ai here are too high -- youve shown a great deal of strength w/ bet,bet, raise and like I said I dont think hes super strong by his turn play.

Edit: crap, didnt see river was a club. Raising is pretty silly here.
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