Re: 1st table 160 WSOP DSO - Call or Fold?
I think this is a close call and I think the 2 to 1 pot odds are extremely relevant. You need only 33% equity to make this call correct.
So, if you are behind, then you most likely still have 5 outs which gives you 20% equity. You only need to come up with 13% more equity to make this call. I think you see
K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]X [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] enough to make this call. Say 70% of the time he has the Q and the other 30% he has a big draw. Then your hand equity would be:
(70% x 20%) + (30% x apprx. 55%)= 31%
So this is about your break even point. 70/30 is my defualt setting for draw heavy flops like this and I adjust it according to the player's style. More passive- 80/20,
more aggro 60/40.
I would lean towards calling since this is a DS and you HAVE to win the first table to make any money. Second means absolutely nothing.
I think the chips you win in this spot would add significantly to your chances of winning.
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